I am starting the new year with the visit to Japan where I will be meeting supply chain companies and manufacturing facilities as part of our ongoing work to define competitive supply chains for our projects under development. As I travel through the skies, I would like to share my thoughts on the offshore wind sector outlook for this year.
After months of turbulence with a probably highly needed reality check from some developers to reflect inflation and supply chain bottlenecks, 2023 finished with the sentiment that the worst had passed and that we could enter a new wave of growth. Although not the only good news, the improved auction conditions in US and UK (https://www.gov.uk/government/news/boost-for-offshore-wind-as-government-raises-maximum-prices-in-renewable-energy-auction), the commitment to triple renewable energy by 2030 signed at COP28 in Dubai, or the Wind Energy Charter signed by EU member states and industry to accelerate wind deployment suggest a turning point that will usher in a more favourable era for the wind industry.
What can we expect in 2024? Despite continued uncertainties, I strongly believe the foundations supporting long-term offshore wind growth will be reinforced. Here’s a glimpse of what to anticipate for this year:
- Accelerated growth: Global offshore wind capacity is expected to rise in line with the recently announced COP28 commitment to triple renewable energy generation capacity by 2030. In 2024 various countries are holding tenders to lease a significant volume (circa 34 GW) and/or award offtake power contracts including France, Italy, Portugal, Taiwan, Spain, Colombia, Australia, the U.K., Belgium, Denmark, Estonia, Finland, India, Japan, Lithuania, Netherlands, Norway, Uruguay, and the U.S.A. According to WindEurope, it is anticipated that if all countries execute their 2024 auctions as scheduled, a minimum of 40 GW will be auctioned this year. Read more on WindEurope projections here: https://windeurope.org/newsroom/press-releases/lots-of-good-news-and-good-numbers-again-in-offshore-wind/. BlueFloat Energy will take an active role in at least 9 of these markets, leveraging the hard work conducted in the last few years.
- Floating Wind: 2023 turbulences affected floating wind too, with a few projects like Trollvind being cancelled. Some investors questioned the capacity of the industry to deliver competitive floating projects. I am convinced that this was an overstatement and 2024 will be a crucial year for floating wind. France will see the results of the first two dedicated floating wind CfD: AO5 and AO6, giving a good indication of the levels of cost of floating wind technology. France is doubling its efforts in this field with the expected launching of a major commercial-scale floating offshore wind tender of 2.5 GW (AO9). 2024 could also see significant progress in the first GW-scale floating projects in KoreaTaiwan is expected to hold its Floating Demonstration Project Tender this year and the CfD allocation round 6 in the UK with a strike price for floating wind technology increased by 52% should give a clear path forward for some of the ongoing stepping stone projects in the country. Spain, Portugal, or Italy will also prepare floating wind tenders that could happen in 2024 or 2025. 2024 will likely be remembered as the year of floating wind.
- Supply Chain: accelerated growth will continue putting pressure on the supply chain. 2024 will likely see announcements of significant investments to increase the capacity to deliver projects across the supply chain, from ports to fabrication yards or installation equipment. At BlueFloat Energy, we are working to create global supply chains that allow leveraging fabrication capacities from different regions, while securing significant job creation and high-quality skilled employment related to final assembly and installation in the countries where we develop projects. Turbine supply will require special attention after years of poor results, but we believe WTG suppliers are setting the basis for a sustained profitable growth. A slowdown in the growth of turbine size should help reducing turbine costs through levers that have not been fully utilized like automation or economies of scale.
- Finance: it is interesting to see that the flow of investment in the offshore wind space never reduced significantly even when doom and gloom were dominating the headlines. As interest rates are flattening and will hopefully come down soon, we should expect interest from investors to mount to help fueling the above-mentioned accelerated growth.
This more positive outlook does not come without challenges. We will continue reading about some cancellations or write-offs as a result of new conditions in 2023. The required increase in delivery capacity will put pressure on the supply chain. Even more importantly, we need governments to mobilize resources to stand by the announcements and commitments. Last but not least, talent will be key to deliver on all the existing plans. In summary, there will be a focus on the quality of projects and delivery teams.
This is where the good work conducted so far by our Dream Team will become very visible. In 2024, BlueFloat Energy is poised to achieve a series of strategic milestones that reflect our ambition for this industry. We have started the year by submitting environmental scoping for two of our Scotwind projects and we are ready to submit a third one, marking a crucial step toward realizing our vision in the Scottish offshore wind sector. In Taiwan we have secured final Environmental Consent for our Winds of September Floating Offshore Wind Project, strategically positioning us for the forthcoming Floating Demonstration Project Tender in 2024.
In Italy, we expect the resolution of our EIA application for Odra Energia OW Project submitted just before the end of last year and preparing the submission of Kailia Energia´s EIA application. We are also focused on the French market, preparing our EOLYMAR project for the upcoming AO6 tender and gearing up for the subsequent AO9 floating wind tender. We continue making strides in the Australian offshore wind market ramping up our development activities as we hope to secure our first leases in Gippsland (Victoria) and Hunter Coast (New South Wales) and preparing for future ones.
In Spain, we have just announced Plenitude joining our partnership with Sener reinforcing our consortium with its strong track record in delivering complex large-scale projects. Furthermore, we are dedicated to supporting the development of new markets such as New Zealand/Aotearoa, the Philippines, Portugal, and Colombia.
As we move forward, BlueFloat Energy remains committed to shaping a sustainable and competitive future for the offshore wind industry. Collaboration, innovation, and a shared vision drive us forward.
Sources:
Record year in global offshore wind | 4C Offshore News
https://www.ft.com/content/5f17fc3f-d380-4479-8e9c-33546e3f85c5
